Periods of very heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, continuing off and on through the day on Friday.
- Most locations will pick up between 3 and 5″ of rain.
- A low-level jet stream and enhancement of orographic lift on the eastern facing slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains poses a severe flash flood concern where upwards of 8″ (locally more) could fall between Wednesday afternoon and Saturday morning.
- The Metropolitan Areas of Washington and Baltimore will also experience some flash flooding issues in low-lying areas, creeks, river beds and streams and poor drainage areas.
- While we need the rain desperately, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly Wednesday afternoon and evening in locations receiving training thunderstorms.
Latest Forecast Models (images courtesy TropicalTidbits.com):
North American Model (NAM) showing future-cast radar
North American Model showing potential rainfall accumulations through Friday night (notice the bright pinks over the Blue Ridge where upwards of 8″ of rain or more is not impossible).
Latest NOAA Potential Rainfall Totals:
Finally the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): Currently shows agreement of a widespread 3 to 5″ of rain falling across the Metropolitan Region.