Eastern Facing Slopes of Blue Ridge Could See Upwards of 8″ of Rain or More

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Periods of very heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, continuing off and on through the day on Friday.

  • Most locations will pick up between 3 and 5″ of rain.

 

  • A low-level jet stream and enhancement of orographic lift on the eastern facing slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains poses a severe flash flood concern where upwards of 8″ (locally more) could fall between Wednesday afternoon and Saturday morning.

 

  • The Metropolitan Areas of Washington and Baltimore will also experience some flash flooding issues in low-lying areas, creeks, river beds and streams and poor drainage areas.

 

  • While we need the rain desperately, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly Wednesday afternoon and evening in locations receiving training thunderstorms.

 

Latest Forecast Models (images courtesy TropicalTidbits.com):

North American Model (NAM) showing future-cast radar

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North American Model showing potential rainfall accumulations through Friday night (notice the bright pinks over the Blue Ridge where upwards of 8″ of rain or more is not impossible). 

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Latest NOAA Potential Rainfall Totals:

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Finally the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): Currently shows agreement of a widespread 3 to 5″ of rain falling across the Metropolitan Region.

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