October Surprise? Watching the Tropics Very Closely!


The image above is showing the American suite of medium range forecast models, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS).  This particular model is an ensemble run (notice all of the various positions of little red and blue numbers) which shows various potential placements of low (red) and high (blue) pressure systems in the future.

The time frame on this latest run is showing the current forecast from Monday October 3 through Tuesday October 5th.  October is notorious for powerful hurricanes to form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and with troughs (dips in the jet stream) becoming more prominent as we head into Autumn we need to be monitoring the tropics closely.

I don’t wish a hurricane on anyone but it will be interesting to see if we can wipe out this recent dry weather with the leftovers of a tropical system before our Fall foliage potentially becomes at risk of being dull due to the recent dry stretch of weather.

Here is the latest (not ensemble and not reliable this far out) single run of the GFS model (image below, courtesy TropicalTidbits.com).  


The point I am driving home is that a cold front could move into the United States and pick up a Hurricane and swing it right up the eastern seaboard bringing drought relief to much of the interior Deep South, Mid-Atlantic and New England states.

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