A Closer Look at this Evening’s Window of Opportunity for Fireworks

The latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model shows light rain developing into a steadier rain during the day today with the potential for a break in the action this evening.

The following image (courtesy Tropicaltidbits.com) is a “future cast” from now until 11PM this evening.

  • Notice steadier rain moving north out of central Virginia into Northern Virginia, DC and Maryland.

July4th_HRRR

A closer look at the time frame between 8PM and 11PM:

  • I will caveat this to those making plans:  this model updates every hour and therefore one can’t assume that it is 100% accurate. The point is that this model does suggest that the fireworks downtown might be able to go off without a hitch IF the trends in the high-resolution models hold which currently show a break in the rain between 7 and 10PM.

Fireworks_HRRR

  • The latest HRRR (image above) also shows a “line of thunderstorms” organizing across eastern West Virginia that will quickly increase our chances for heavy rainfall late this evening through the Tuesday morning rush hour.  After the fireworks this evening… nature will set off its own fireworks show during the late evening through the overnight. 

The week ahead will be feature our region’s first “stretch of above average temperatures” with hazy, hot and humid conditions as high temperatures reach the middle 90s beginning on Wednesday and possibly continuing through the upcoming weekend.

 

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