Soaring Temperatures &amp Strong Thunderstorms Headed to DC

July and August are my least favorite months in the year for reasons that we will all be feeling here in the National Capital Region Thursday and Friday as high temperatures soar into the middle to upper 90s. 

GEFS_temperatures

An upper level ridge of High Pressure that is currently responsible for the nasty heat wave across the Plains will edge to the east this week pumping the heat and humidity into our region. The medium range models (image seen below, courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) suggests that after a brief break this weekend… heat may build in early next week lasting through mid to possibly even late July!

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A Closer Look at this Evening’s Window of Opportunity for Fireworks

The latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model shows light rain developing into a steadier rain during the day today with the potential for a break in the action this evening.

The following image (courtesy Tropicaltidbits.com) is a “future cast” from now until 11PM this evening.

  • Notice steadier rain moving north out of central Virginia into Northern Virginia, DC and Maryland.

July4th_HRRR

A closer look at the time frame between 8PM and 11PM:

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Heavy Rain will Dampen the 4th

NAM

The time-lapse image above (courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) shows an area of low pressure that will move along a stalled out frontal boundary between Sunday afternoon into the Tuesday morning rush hour.

  • Torrential rain and widespread embedded thunderstorms are likely

 

  • Heaviest rain threat will arrive on the 4th of July, in fact the Holiday itself may turn out to be a wash out.  Hoping for a break in the action in time for the fireworks.

 

  • Flash Flooding is a great possibility in areas that receive training thunderstorms.

 

  • Lightning will pose a danger during the Holiday so if you hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

How much rain could fall?

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