Latest Euro, Canadian and GFS Snowfall Accumulation Forecasts

The best chance of accumulation from this weekend’s snow event will be on grassy surfaces and trees.  Here are the latest forecast models (images courtesy Weatherbell):

Here is the latest 12z Operational European Snowfall Forecast: Generally a dusting in the urban heat island with one to three inches in the suburbs.

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_13

Here is the latest European Ensemble which probably has the best idea: Again a general one to three inches with two to four inches the further north and west you go from the metro Area.

eps_snow_m_washdc_11

GFS Model is interestingly now the most bullish:  Basically the higher elevations could probably pick up 3 to 6″ from this storm (those of you at or above 1500 feet)

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_12

Last up: The Canadian Forecast Model –

cmc_snow_acc_washdc_14

In review:

  • Rain will break out Saturday during the afternoon/evening hours. The rain will mix with and change over to wet snow.
  • Periods of wet snow will fall Saturday overnight through the day on Sunday. The snow may mix with rain in DC points south and east.
  • Accumulations will range from a dusting to 1″ inside the Capital Beltway (Up to 2″ could fall there but less likely if temperatures don’t drop to freezing)
  • The northern and western suburbs can expect 1 to 3″ of snow from this system.
  • Extreme northern Maryland and the foothills of the Blue Ridge mountains (western Loudoun county, Frederick county Maryland) could pick up 2 to 4″.

 

3 thoughts on “Latest Euro, Canadian and GFS Snowfall Accumulation Forecasts

  1. Andy

    The fact that temperatures are now in the 60’s would lead me to believe, with a long duration, low intensity event, the snow will basically melt as it falls, with little or no accumulation.

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  2. stephan baker

    Hey Tim! Are ya gonna do some summer forecasting? I’ve pretty much turned all my face book peeps on to your blog. was just curious.

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    • Tim

      I typically spend a lot of energy on Winter forecasts. I will say this… Summers that follow El Nino winters are typically much warmer than normal and very humid in the Mid-Atlantic. I think we will all be longing for Fall by June/July and am hoping that we at least get some heavy rains so that we don’t go into a drought. Its definitely looking like a hot and humid summer with the potential for an active severe weather season here.

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