European Model Shifts East in Track Overnight as Consensus Finally Builds

Bottom Line Up Front:

  • Latest operational run of the European (00z) from overnight shifted the storm track well to the east (talk about model whiplash!)
  • The European Ensembles are now in agreement with this shift in the operational track.  The GFS also has the more eastward track which means consensus is finally there that the heaviest snow will remain offshore.
  • Still some light snow will likely accumulate on grassy surfaces overnight on Saturday into the day on Sunday (read below for latest accumulation maps).

Here is the latest European Ensemble (image courtesy Weatherbell) showing clustering of “L”s more offshore than yesterday which explains why last nights operational model shifted east as well (those of you dreading a heavy march snow are probably cheering).


Latest (00z) European forecast operational model (images courtesy Weatherbell) Shifted Well East overnight since yesterday’s (12z) run:

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_11 ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_12 ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_14

Latest European Operational Snowfall Forecast:

Image one: Northeast; Image two DMV



And finally the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Snowfall Forecast (I’m shocked that this model had track right… stranger things have happened):


In Review: 

  • The models are now in much better agreement that while a coastal storm will move up the coast, the track should stay far enough east  to spare the DC Area a heavy snowfall.


  • Rain should develop Saturday afternoon or evening and begin to mix with and change over to wet snow overnight. The snow will continue to fall on Sunday before tapering off in the late afternoon/evening. Temperatures should be warm enough for this to fall mainly on grassy surfaces with what is looking like a 1 to 3″ storm in the suburbs with likely up to 1″ possible at the urban heat island of National Airport.


  • After this last bout of Winter chill and snow on the first day of Spring… I’m ready for Spring myself! Whatever falls will rapidly melt as temperature warm back up during the middle part of next week! 





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