Thursday Update on Sunday Nor’easter: Euro Shifts West & Increases Snowfall Accumulation

Quick update this morning:

  • European operational and its ensembles both shifted a bit closer to the coast with their overnight (ooz) runs increasing their potential snowfall accumulation for the 95 corridor.
  • GFS shifted a little more to the west from its previous run but still shows a track more offshore.

Here’s a look at the forecast models (all courtesy of Weatherbell.com):

First up the latest (00z) European Operational: Track is closer to the coast than previous run with the potential for a “big city” accumulating snow event.

Images 1 – 4 (Sunday at 1pm, Sunday at 7pm, Monday at 1am, Monday at 7am)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_16

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_17 ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_18 ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_19

Here’s the latest Snowfall forecast from the same European operational forecast model above (4 images above show the “liquid” equivalent that would fall as well as storm track)… here’s how much snow could potentially fall if this latest 00z operational model is correct:

  • As you can see *IF* this track were to pan out, we would have a decent snow storm on our hands for the Washington – Boston corridor on Sunday afternoon into Monday!

ecmwf_tsnow_ma_21

A closer look at the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) –

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_21

Also, I will mention that the European Ensembles have also increased snowfall potential among several of their 50-some members, that is the majority now show some snow accumulating with the minority showing little to none. Will this trend continue this afternoon?

eps_snow_25_washdc_21 eps_snow_50_washdc_21

Lastly, the latest GFS has shifted a tad west but keeps accumulating snow on the immediate coast (mainly east of the DC Area):  If the GFS continues to shift a tad west with each future run and the Euro hold steady and increases its snowfall forecast among its ensembles… we are looking at a heavy, wet late March, Winter Snow Storm.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_20

More updates to as more information becomes available!

 

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