European & Canadian Forecast Models Suggest Snow Shovels May Be Needed; 12z GFS shifts a tad west as well! Is this a Trend?

March can be a fickle month as Washington has had several wet snow events including a few crippling storms (March 1993) during this time of the year.  There have been lots of early March predictions out there stating that “Winter is over”.  (For example, the folks at the Capital Weather Gang:  stated on March 7th,  “It’s gone. The winter of 2015-2016, which will long be remembered for the great Snowzilla blizzard of Jan. 22-23, has departed. We no longer see a credible threat of accumulating snow and/or acute cold weather.” click here to see for yourself)

After living in Washington for almost 20 years you learn that you don’t make claims on Winter being over in early March despite periods of warmer, spring-like weather. 

Regardless of how Sunday’s storm pans out… Winter weather which includes “acute cold” will return for the first day of Spring (Sunday). 

Today’s models have, shall we say, opened up the possibilities that a Nor’easter may track close enough to the coast to produce an accumulating snowfall event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

I am well aware that this storm system could very well track out to sea sparing the DC Area from any accumulating snow.  However, if today’s trends in the European forecast model continue, we might need to pull out the snow shovels again.

Let’s take a look at the latest forecast models (Images courtesy Weatherbell.com).

Latest (12z) Operational European Forecast Model – Shows the storm taking a closer track to the coast… is this a trend? We will certainly have more confidence tomorrow to see if this shift in track continues.

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_17

Now let’s check out the latest Snow Accumulation Potential:

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