Update on Potential Weekend Nor’easter

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The image above (courtesy Weatherbell) is the from the latest European Ensemble forecast model showing a potential coastal storm sitting somewhere near Hatteras, NC on Sunday evening (7 PM).

Bottom Line Up Front:

  • A storm system will track out of the Deep South on Saturday likely riding up the eastern seaboard Sunday into Monday  potentially impacting the Mid-Atlantic and New England states with heavy, wet snow.

 

  • The forecast models have recently moved away from the idea of a storm tracking west of our area with rain and instead have consolidated on a more eastward coastal track which would pull cold air into the northeast Megalopolis from DC to Boston raising the prospects for snow versus rain.

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Image above shows the coastal storm moving just offshore the Mid-Atlantic (Del-Mar-Va & NJ) coastline late Sunday evening.

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Image above – 7AM Monday (European Ensemble forecast model)

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Image above shows deepening coastal storm sitting off of Cape Cod midday Monday.

Let’s  look at the latest Ensembles (various opinions) on potential snowfall accumulation outcomes (images courtesy Weatherbell):

Ensembles for the Eastern Seaboard (click on images twice to enlarge, current snowfall predictions can be seen on the color ramp graph on the right hand side of the image):

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Same Ensembles for the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia):

eps_snow_25_washdc_25 eps_snow_50_washdc_25

The latest GFS (which I wouldn’t trust right now anyways) isn’t out yet… so let’s look at the latest Operational Canadian forecast model (this is not an ensemble but just the latest run of the Canadian that comes out every 12 hours… likely to change):

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Notice the latest Canadian dumps over a foot of snow from Roanoke Rapids NC into south-central Virginia including the Richmond Area before depositing more snow on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket (missing the DC-Boston big cities).

In Review:  Stay Tuned for updates as now we are talking about a more eastward track and much colder air to work with… if some of the European Ensembles are onto something… we could have a high impact late March snow across the Washington Region and points north and east.

 

 

 

 

 

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