A Look Ahead through the end of March

March is probably the most fickle month of the calendar year as warm air punching in out of the Gulf of Mexico battles with lingering arctic air over Canada. Is Winter over? To be honest, I wouldn’t mind it if it was as forecasting snow storms can be exhausting. Next week’s record warmth may come to an end as a trough builds back into the east during the middle to latter half of March.

Let’s take a look at the latest temperature anomaly (degrees Celsius) forecast through the end of March from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model (images courtesy TropicalTidbits):

March 5th through 10th:

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_1

March 10th through 15th:

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_2

March 15th through 20th:

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_3

March 20th through 25th:

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_4

March 25th through 30th:

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_5

In Review:

  • The latest climate models suggest record warmth through March 25th, however these models are not typically very accurate out past about 10 to 15 days.

 

  • It is possible that the trough will swing back into the central part of the Nation late next week before slowly building back into the East during the middle portion of the Month.

 

  • Do I think we have seen our last snow event? It’s possible, but I have seen snow covering the Cherry Blossoms in early April.  Winter isn’t over until it’s over and March is incredibly fickle, so anything is possible.

Have a great weekend! Enjoy the Spring-like temperatures next week!

7 Replies to “A Look Ahead through the end of March”

  1. I imagine if you look out late tonight, you might see the last snow of the 2015-16 winter, though not much of a snow.

    This winter has been beyond weird. Record warm December and March, with a historic snowfall in between. It keeps the trend going for almost all of our big snows since 1958 happening during El Nino. The only exception I believe is 1996, but even then, we had just come out of El Nino. Let’s hope El Nino persists at least into Autumn!

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    1. It has been a bizarre winter for sure! The models predict the death of El Nino pretty rapidly and bring us into a La Nina for the Winter of 2016-2017. I hate summers following El Nino winters… they are typically hot and humid. #Gross.

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  2. I think that was winter’s last gasp. It looks like the pattern is looking like spring will bust loose for good. We don’t need a dry summer this year after what we had the second half of last year.

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  3. Yes, it has been a winter of almost unbelievable extremities. Not looking forward to the hot & humid grueling heat this summer 😦

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  4. Loved the spring warmth this week! Looks a little colder deffinitely twoward the end of March. Probably a very hot spring and summer. Do you think a lot of rain is possible?

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    1. Summers following El Nino Winters are typically hot and humid. Looks like we might be in for an active severe weather season this year.

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