The European Forecast model has shifted further north in track this afternoon, if the trend continues in tonight’s run of the next operational, then the interstate 95 corridor of Northern Virginia could easily get into the 3 to 6″ zone.  The map above was made by  blending the GFS and Euro.

The images below are from the latest Operational Models so you can make up your own minds (Images courtesy Weatherbell.com):

Global Forecast System:

European Forecast Model:

Timing: A rain-snow mix develops after the Thursday evening rush hour, roads should be mostly wet.  The rain-snow mix transitions over to steady light accumulating snow during the overnight hours, continuing through Friday noon.

Bulls Eye:  There is the potential for a bulls-eye of 3 to 6″ to creep further north and west into the interstate 95 corridor of Northern Virginia, including downtown DC.  While temperatures will be in the lower 30’s there is the potential for a plowable snow especially on untreated secondary roads.  This storm could rapidly deepen with a band of heavy snow falling during the morning rush hour on Friday through noon.

I will be watching tonight’s Euro to see if it creeps further north.