Model Whiplash – Euro Tracks Storm Further North Overnight… Trend?

Unbelievable! Just as I am ready to write this storm off yesterday evening… the models move further north with the track overnight. The model to watch this afternoon is going to be the next run of the European. 

Latest Operational run of the Euro shows the “DC split idea with a 1 to 3″ of snow across our area” a hole over north-central Virginia (Culpeper/Fredericksburg) and some much heavier snow across central Virginia/Northern Neck over to southern Maryland.

ecmwf_tsnow_maryland_15

But the GFS last night strengthens this storm much faster and takes the track on a bee-line to deliver some heavy wet snow across parts of our area…. 7″ of snow at National Airport?

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_15

So we now look at the all important European Ensembles (images courtesy Weatherbell):

#1 – The storm track has shifted more north… if it shifts even further north this afternoon on the operational European model… we are in business … meaning… the GFS model may be on to something (and I usually put more faith into the European model)

eps_slp_lows_ma_11 eps_slp_lows_ma_12

The two images above actually show a pretty decent storm track… I’d still like to see the low a bit deeper and over Hatteras in the first frame.  In other words if this exact storm track were to pan out… we’d look to our southern and eastern suburbs as getting higher end totals.

But… some of the ensemble members crush the metro with a plowable snow (images below courtesy weatherbell)… and there has been a slight uptick with accumulation among these:

eps_snow_25_washdc_61 eps_snow_50_washdc_61

In Review:

  • GFS came north overnight and shows a colder temperature profile giving the DC Area a nuisance snow storm (plowable in places) with widespread school closings and delays on Friday

 

  • The current Euro drops a 1 to 3″ snowfall across our area Thursday night with a potential “hole” just south of DC and then central Virginia (between Fredericksburg to Richmond) get’s raked with a plowable snow.

 

  • Will last nights Euro come further north today?  If it does… how much further north does it come? If it comes far enough north in its next two runs… the “Winter Storm Watches” might have to come out of the National Weather Service tool shed for parts of our Region. 

This is a nail biter of a forecast! Updates this afternoon/evening as the next run of the Euro comes in!

One Reply to “Model Whiplash – Euro Tracks Storm Further North Overnight… Trend?”

  1. I like this trend a lot! Will road temps even be cold enough for a “plowable snow?”

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s