Tuesday Update on Potential Winter Storm

Last nights run of the Euro still remains steady in the evolution of a coastal storm remaining suppressed further to the south on Friday morning.  The GFS Ensembles are a little bit further north in placement.

First up, GFS Ensembles, showing two pieces of energy associated with the northern and southern branches of the jet stream (one piece can be seen with low clusters over northern West Virginia *red numbers on map below*) and the second piece of energy can be seen with the low clusters over South Carolina (images courtesy Tropical Tidbits):

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_13 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_14

The GFS Ensembles do however have the coastal storm a but further to the north (nearer to Hatteras) than the European model by Friday morning.

Next up the European forecast Ensemble for Friday Morning:

eps_slp_lows_ma_15

Most are clustered south of Hatteras but a few members are slightly further north.

Lastly lets look at the European forecast Ensemble members (all 50-something) for potential snowfall outcomes:

eps_snow_25_washdc_19 eps_snow_50_washdc_19

Most of the ensembles would suggest a  general one to three inch snowfall accumulation across our area, several members that show a more northward track suggest heavier snowfall amounts could fall.

Last nights operational GFS and Canadian came further north with the track of the storm system… so the models are currently giving mixed messages which to me means that the initialization of data is still lacking.

We are approaching the critical time frame this evening when the energy associated with this system reaches land, I will be putting more faith into the operational and ensembles model data this evening.  Stay tuned for updates.

 

 

 

2 thoughts on “Tuesday Update on Potential Winter Storm

  1. Brendan Friedrich

    I’m hoping for a few inches. Could it be a nor-easter? Would road temperatures even be cold enough for snow to stick?

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  2. Russell Anderson

    It could be a small but intense Nor-easter depending on how quickly the Low pressure strengthens off of Cape Hatteras. Depending on the track and how much cold air gets drawn into the system, the snow could potentially stick to the pavement.

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