Quick update this morning:
The shortwave energy that will be responsible for the eventual evolution of the storm system late this week is still out over the northern Pacific ocean. Once the piece of energy in the jet stream hits land in the Pacific northwest, the computer models will have a much better idea of the eventual track as they will be ingesting better data.
The following images from Tropical Tidbits show the piece of shortwave energy hitting the Washington state coastline Tuesday night before the system ends up around our region on Friday.
The operational models (GFS, Canadian and European) all currently have snow breaking out Thursday night and then continuing through Friday. However some models suggest the storm may be suppressed further south preventing a major snowfall. We will know a lot more tomorrow evening as to how this system may evolve. Due to the negative NAO forecast to develop with high pressure to the north, we may find that this storm is further north with enough cold air to produce a decent snowfall across our region, but we can’t know this for sure at this time.