Latest European Model’s Take on Potential Snow Event

The European Forecast model is much more suppressed to the south with its track and while its current ensembles do not agree 100% on just how far north the storm system will track they are definitely clustered pretty closely.

Check out the 50-some potential positions of the area of low pressure Friday morning (images courtesy Weatherbell):  Several of the ensemble members still give snow-lovers a glimmer of hope. Remember, the 18z will come out tonight and tomorrow’s runs of the Euro should really start to hone in on a solution.

eps_slp_25_ma_17 eps_slp_50_ma_17

What about Snowfall Potential?

The image below shows more of an “average” positioning of the low taking into account all of the ensemble members you saw above. I’d like to see the storm centered at Hatteras or just to its north in order to bring heavier snowfall into the DC Area.  The 18z will come out later this evening/overnight and it will be very interesting to see if it shifts north.

eps_slp_lows_ma_17

Ensembles for Snowfall:

  • There is a 30 percent chance of a bust
  • There is a 30 percent chance of something falling
  • There is a 30 percent chance of a boom
  • And there is a 10 percent chance of hell freezing over

Can I then grade myself with an A+ on Saturday morning after the event or non-event is over? 

eps_snow_25_washdc_23 eps_snow_50_washdc_23

More updates to come as details become more clear.

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