Probability Continues to Increase for a Snowstorm Friday

eps_slp_lows_ma_25

Today’s latest European ensemble forecast model (image above courtesy Tropical Tidbits) shows a storm positioned off of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday morning.  We are still several days out and the exact track and amount of cold air will definitely need to be ironed out as we get closer to the potential event.

Latest European Operational Forecast model (images below, courtesy Weatherbell) shows snow breaking out Thursday evening and then a rapidly strengthening storm system overnight into Friday.  Remember the operational models give us a forecast every few hours (6 to 12 hours depending upon the model) so it’s better to focus on the Ensembles (multiple runs of the same model) until we get much closer to the event.  Why would I show the operational? Because I like to give my readers a look at potential outcomes…

European Operational  – 1AM Friday

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European Operational – 7 AM Friday (Heavy Snow)ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_23

European Operational – 1PM Friday – Very Heavy Snow (rapidly deepening Nor’easter)ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_24

If this one operational model run (above) were 100% accurate how much snow would accumulate? Well with the recent warmth we would probably lose some accumulation but the latest operational snowfall accumulation brought a big smile to my face this morning… even if it is just a possibility. We have a storm to watch!

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Now let’s take a look at the all important European Ensemble Snowfall Potential:  Remember, the slightest change in track can make or break a storm.

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Notice how the current Ensembles (51 images above) are not in 100% agreement *yet* on track and amounts.

So there you have it, while it now appears a storm system may deliver snow to the Mid-Atlantic region the exact track, amount of cold air in place, how quickly it deepens and how quickly it moves will ultimately determine how much snow (if any) that we receive Thursday night into Friday.

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4 thoughts on “Probability Continues to Increase for a Snowstorm Friday

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