Timing the Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Potential Wednesday

day2otlk_1730

The current image above shows the Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening (courtesy Storm Prediction Center).  The best chance of severe thunderstorms will be across southern Maryland, Fredericksburg and the northern Neck of Virginia.

The following images are from the High Resolution NAM (North American Model) timing the potential line (lines) of strong thunderstorms (images courtesy tropical tidbits):

1 pm Wednesday: Scattered showers

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_8

4 pm Wednesday: Scattered showers and Thunderstorms

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_9

7 pm Wednesday:  Nasty line of storms may be approaching the Metro Area from the Blue Ridge mountains.

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_10

10 pm Wednesday: Line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the 95 corridor between Baltimore, Washington and Fredericksburg.

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_11

1 am Thursday:  Storms moving across the Chesapeake Bay

nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_12

Bottom Line:

  • Rainfall totals of around one inch are likely with some locations receiving thunderstorms possibly picking upwards of 2 to 3 inches.
  • Strong thunderstorms have the potential to reach severe limits Wednesday afternoon with damaging wind gusts (above 58 mph), cloud to ground lightning, torrential rain and isolated tornadoes.

 

 

One Reply to “Timing the Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Potential Wednesday”

  1. It didn’t take long for our interest to change from snowstorms to severe weather, but I guess beggars should not be choosy.

    We just got one of the great snowstorms in history and I am already complaining a month later.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s