Early March Still on my Radar for Potential East Coast Storm

Winter isn’t over until its over. I have had several friends today complaining to me that “The NAO is negative and I am looking at the models and all the storms are going to our west”.

First of all, The NAO is *currently* Positive, and the models 8 to 10 days out are garbage and will not latch onto the correct track of a storm system until blocking starts to develop over the North Atlantic. Once the blocking forms (and the NAO is *officially* negative) the Euro, GFS, Canadian may begin to show an east coast storm sometime during the first week of March.

The images below are from the European Ensemble forecast (courtesy Weatherbell) showing potential trough over the East coast on March 5th with blocking over the North Atlantic (bright red colors northeast of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia).

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Timing the Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Potential Wednesday

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The current image above shows the Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening (courtesy Storm Prediction Center).  The best chance of severe thunderstorms will be across southern Maryland, Fredericksburg and the northern Neck of Virginia.

The following images are from the High Resolution NAM (North American Model) timing the potential line (lines) of strong thunderstorms (images courtesy tropical tidbits):

1 pm Wednesday: Scattered showers

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