Cold Weather Will Return, Still Watching Late February through Early March

Cold air will return behind Wednesday’s departing storm system, likely sticking around through the first few days of March (image below courtesy tropicaltidbits).

cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_2

The overall upper level pattern still favors the potential for a stormy pattern (negative NAO, negative AO and positive PNA) in the east next weekend through the first full week of March (images below courtesy Weatherbell).

A negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) favor’s upper level blocking across the North Atlantic which increases the amplification of the jet stream and slows storms down that may form along the eastern seaboard.

ecmwf_nao_bias

gfs_nao_bias

A negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) favor’s cold air to infiltrate the continental United States from Canada.

ecmwf_ao_bias

gfs_ao_bias

A positive PNA (Pacific North American) index favors a ridge of high pressure holding strong across the western United states.  This ensures that a trough of low pressure will then be situated across the eastern United States.

ecmwf_pna_bias gfs_pna_bias

Thankfully the rain this week will continue to wash away the remaining ugly brown piles of snow and sand off of our area roadways.

 

 

3 Replies to “Cold Weather Will Return, Still Watching Late February through Early March”

  1. Today’s GFS shows a strong Arctic outbreak around the end of February and a near miss with a coastal storm on March 1-2. There is plenty of time for that miss to change into a hit.

    Now getting toward March, we can use all the Arctic air we can get!

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    1. People need to plan for a very hot and dry spring and summer 2016 in Western US! El Nino has no benifit for the west, especially as it is transitioning to La Nina next fall and winter. 2016 and 2017 will likely surpass the 2011-2012 La Nina in drought and heat

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  2. The western high pressure will last all spring and into summer. Southwest monsoons will also be much more limited than previous monsoons. 2016 western drought I predict to be more extreme than even the La Nina years 2010-2012

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