Models Finally Gaining Consensus on Track of Next Week’s Storm

The forecast models overnight and this morning are finally  coming into agreement that the storm track should end up remaining well to the west of our Area dashing hopes of a snow storm across our area.  Some of you are probably cheering and others are sighing.

Here is the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble showing the area of low pressure at noon on Wednesday centered somewhere over eastern Kentucky (image courtesy Tropicaltidbits):

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19

Next up is the European Ensemble forecast model (image courtesy weatherbell) – the storm system on this ensemble run is slightly south and east of the GFS.  The issue I see is that the NAO is still positive and there isn’t a lot of cold air out ahead of this system.

eps_slp_lows_ma_20

European Ensemble Snowfall Forecast Potential through Thursday Afternoon (images courtesy Weatherbell):

eps_snow_25_ma_24

eps_snow_50_ma_24

Averaging the ensembles above out into one map: Currently the Appalachians, Great Lakes and interior portions of New England are the most likely to receive some heavy wet snow out of this system.

eps_snow_m_ma_24

To Review:

  • Ensembles have shifted the track of the mid-week storm to the west increasing the likelihood of a rain event for the Washington Area.
  • The NAO index is still forecast to drop during the later half of the week which means the east coast is not out of the woods for another big storm between the 28th and first few days of March.

 

 

 

One Reply to “Models Finally Gaining Consensus on Track of Next Week’s Storm”

  1. There are still a couple of holdouts, so I guess you never know!

    Looking at the your winter snowfall total prediction chart on the right, your forecast was very accurate, assuming we don’t get much more snow.

    It has been an odd winter with about 90% of our snowfall coming from one event. I would call this the “Perfectly imperfect winter, except for one perfect moment.”

    Like

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