Thursday Update on Next Week’s Potential East Coast Snow Storm

The following images (courtesy Weatherbell) will show that the ensembles within the European model are not surprisingly still not in complete agreement on exact track as this system is still several days out.

Let’s look at the various potential placements of the surface low next Wednesday (notice they are still scattered which means there isn’t enough consensus for confidence on who gets what):

Ensembles 1 through 25 showing potential low pressure Wednesday evening of next week:


Ensemble 26 through 50:


Low Pressure Placements (notice they are not tightly clustered with some more inland and some off the coast):

7PM Wednesday


1AM Thursday


More updates to come as we continue to get closer to the potential event.




5 thoughts on “Thursday Update on Next Week’s Potential East Coast Snow Storm

  1. The 1082 – 926 is mean surface pressure. The higher the number 1082 (higher the pressure)… the lower the number (926) typically an area of low pressure. Average sea level pressure is 1013 millibars.

  2. Tim, how do you read the numbers to the right of these ensembles of 1082-926? And recently there were two horizonal number bars at the bottom of some of the maps which I did not understand. Thanks for this site & especially for your very accurate early forecasting of the Blizzard of 2016; very well done!

  3. Robert, in regards to your comments, if you click on the images (click on them twice to make them large) you can see the snowfall accumulation scale on the right relating to the various colors. The point that I was making showing all 50 ensemble runs is that there isn’t any consensus on exact track, otherwise each ensemble would have the same solution for the DC Area.

  4. When will we know where this storm will deffinetely track? I’m hoping for a more offshore track! Could it be like the blizzard

  5. Putting maps on this site without providing meaningful comments is not very informative, especially after site mentioned possibility of 1 to 2 feet of snow for DC area & north for Tuesday-Saturday of next week. And it would be very helpful if site provided explanation of number tables that accompany/surround these maps.

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