Spring Fever this Weekend, Still Little Consensus on track of Possible Winter Storm next Week

Who is ready for some Spring like temperatures?

The images below (courtesy weatherbell) shows the possible high temperatures on Saturday with locations away from the tidal Potomac and Bay reaching the 60s (click on the image twice to enlarge)

ecmwf_t2m_maryland_10

Potential highs on Sunday – a cold front will push through during the middle portion of the day so highs may not reach the lower 60s unless you live in Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, Stafford or King George counties.

ecmwf_t2m_maryland_14

Possible Winter Storm Next Week:

  • Jury is still out on exact track
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index still trending negative during the middle to later portion of next week

ecmwf_nao_bias

In the graph above (courtesy Weatherbell) you can see the solid blue line ending right around the 18 FEB… indicative that today’s NAO index is a positive 1.5.  Notice that from the 19th through the 29th many of the models keep the index positive to neutral but most begin to dip toward negative around the 26th.  Keep in mind that the NAO index forecast updates daily and the index may begin to slide more negative in the coming days.

European Ensembles for snow accumulation (courtesy Weatherbell): No consensus this far out, click on image twice to view in full size, the color bar on the right hand side represents snowfall in inches (coordinating to the colors on the map).

First 25 Ensembles (out of 50)

eps_snow_25_ma_31

Second 25 Ensembles (out of 50)

eps_snow_50_ma_31

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