Probable East Coast Storm next Week

eps_z500a_noram_31

The image above is of the European Ensemble (image courtesy weatherbell) showing a favorable upper level pattern (500 mb/jet stream level) for the potential of a major east coast storm next week (dark purples over the southeast are indicative of a deep trough that may spawn a coastal storm).

The details this far out are pointless to focus on because as you will see, the European ensemble members are not in agreement on the exact track of whatever low that may form:

Ensemble 1 through 25 (out of 50):  Notice that some show 1 to 2 feet of snow across the big cities from DC to Boston while others keep the snow further west.

eps_snow_25_ma_37

Ensemble 26 through 50:

eps_snow_50_ma_39

The other index I will be watching will be the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is actually currently in its positive phase.  If the NAO begins to slide towards its negative phase… this simply means that upper level blocking is developing over the North-Atlantic which favors east coast storms that ride up the coast, moving slowly underneath the more “amplified/blocked” jet stream pattern.

Here is the current forecast from the Euro and GFS for the NAO: Notice they want to slide negative right around February 26th.  Basically next Tuesday through Saturday is fair game for the potential increasing of another big east coast storm.

ecmwf_nao_bias gfs_nao_bias

 

The long range pattern from now through the end of March has the MJO index going into phase 8 with a stubborn ridge of high pressure continuing to hold strong across the western coast of North America.

MJO phases 1 through 8 and temperature anomalies: Phase 8 is cold for the eastern seaboard.

combined_image-JFM

The European Ensembles show the ridging that wants to hold strong across the west coast of the United States all the way up into western Canada through at least the beginning of March: Image below shows ensemble upper level forecast for March 2nd, 2016 (ridge out west, trough in the east).

eps_z500a_noram_55

As I had discussed in my Winter Forecast back in October, the positive phase of the PDO would favor a  ridge of high pressure to build in across the west coast and a trough to be favored in the east)… which is why i forecast at least one big snow storm for our area.

pdo_hare_fisheries

Enjoy the weather Thursday through the weekend!  We have sunny skies and temperatures that will be climbing into the 60s possibly on Sunday!  Get out and enjoy it! Winter is not over.

Did you know you can receive my latest posts directly to your inbox?  My website was just formatted for smart phones.  You can sign up by simply entering your email address into the submission box on the right hand frame of my website.

 

3 Replies to “Probable East Coast Storm next Week”

  1. ugh

    On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 6:18 PM, DCstorms.com wrote:

    > Tim posted: ” The image above is of the European Ensemble (image courtesy > weatherbell) showing a favorable upper level pattern (500 mb/jet stream > level) for the potential of a major east coast storm next week (dark > purples over the southeast are indicative of a dee” >

    Like

  2. Thanks for an excellent write up, very interesting and informative.

    Even though a large percentage of big DC snowstorms have taken place between 1/22 and 2/22, there have been practically none that I can recall between 2/23 and the end of the month. Whether there is any reason for that or it is just a quirk, who knows? Maybe we can change that this year.

    Like

  3. Looks worth watching. If this were all snow could we get as much as the blizzard?

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s