Sorry for the late update but my computer decided to completely die yesterday and I have spent hours recovering documents and I am slowly getting things back up and running. For the sake of getting an update out I looked through the various models and found a snowfall map that I agree with the most (image courtesy weatherbell).
Why I think Winter Storm Warnings are needed along and west of Interstate 95:
- Snowfall ratios will start out high with the very cold air in place. Every flake will stick as surface temperatures are well below freezing.
- Generally speaking I think 2 to 4 inches will fall across the Washington Metropolitan Area. Locations along a line from Warrenton to Dulles Airport to Leesburg and Frederick Maryland could pick up to 5″ of snow before a change over to the dreaded freezing rain.
- The probability of up to a quarter of an inch of ice on top of the snow is likely along and west of interstate 95 before the change over to rain Tuesday morning.
- Locations east of 95 could pick up to a tenth of an inch of ice (from freezing rain) before the change over to rain pre-dawn Tuesday.
- Snow begins between midnight and 3AM Monday (it will take some time to moisten up the very dry atmosphere in place).
- Snow should fall through at least noon across the immediate Washington Area points north and west before a change over to freezing rain from southeast to northwest
- Those of you in the sheltered valleys west of the Blue Ridge mountains should be prepared for significant icing with the potential for power outages as the winds pick up on Tuesday.