GFS Reverts Back to Westward Track

The following three images show potential snow and ice accumulation from the European and GFS models (images courtesy weatherbell).
image image image

Unfortunately for those of us who love snow the latest run of the GFS operational model shifted the track of Monday and Tuesday’s storm system back to the west.

Bottom Line: The European and GFS models are now in agreement in track dashing hopes for a significant snowfall across the Washington region.

Based upon the latest models it looks likely that the metropolitan area should receive between one and four inches of snow before a change over to sleet and freezing rain on Monday.

Snow showers would begin on Sunday evening and would continue through the overnight hours into Monday morning. The snow would then change to sleet and freezing rain around noon on Monday (possibly earlier the further south and east you go from DC).

The wintry mix of precipitation will change over to rain Monday evening into the day on Tuesday with temperatures likely climbing into the upper 40s to near 50° by afternoon.

5 Replies to “GFS Reverts Back to Westward Track”

  1. Is it possible for one of the the models to revert back east? how likely is that?

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  2. We get some snow and it is soon washed away. That’s the perfect snow event in my opinion. Most all of the major weather outlets called it as you describe here days ago with minor variations, it is the weather after all. We don’t get a vote, it just happens and in the mid atlantic, consistent winter weather snow events are very rare. Born and raised in VA, not much has changed concerning the weather, some of the terms and descriptions ie. “THE POLAR VORTEX” (said with an echo), but the storm tracks, cold fronts and resultant impact are, and confirmed with this storm, what you get south of the Mason Dixon.
    Thanks Tim, I enjoy reading the opinions and a analysis.

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  3. Oh boy, the school’s sure will have a tough decision to make on Tues, depending on how much the rain washes away any frozen stuff from Mon.

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  4. Hey Tim. For eventualities such as this, I’ve found some off-the-shelf anti-depressants that work quite well; B-O-U-R-B-O-N. I find solace in that when snow storms fizzle. Thanks for keeping us posted!

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  5. Could winter storm watches be issued for the northwest suburbs? Could the GFS shift back east just like the surprise last night?

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