Snow, Ice or Rain Monday into Tuesday?

eps_snow_25_washdc_29 eps_snow_50_washdc_31

There isn’t much consensus with the storm track for early next week. The two images above (image courtesy, weatherbell) are showing the current European Ensembles for potential snowfall amounts.

Here are the Global Forecast System Ensembles for snowfall (image courtesy weatherbell):

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_28

Right now my best guess looking at the models is that we would at least start out as snow Monday evening and if the track does come more inland, the snow would change over to sleet and then freezing rain before turning to cold rain.  Some locations in the mountains would receive very heavy snow.

Then again, the current GFS operational has shifted eastward with track as has the Canadian (favoring more snow than rain for the 95 corridor).

This morning’s European was favoring a more coastal track and has shifted to a more inland track this evening. With such little consensus anyone who tells you they know what is going to fall is lying to you.

More updates to come as we get closer to this event.

2 Replies to “Snow, Ice or Rain Monday into Tuesday?”

  1. The Canadian at 144 hours looked like a setup for a very major snowstorm. As cold as we are going to start out, you would think we would at the least get several inches of snow.

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  2. thanks for the updates; i am following your blogs so I know what to expect

    Like

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