Quick morning update to show the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model for potential snowfall through this evening: Winter Storm Warnings were dropped with a Winter Weather Advisory posted mainly for Maryland and Loudoun county Virginia.
What went wrong with the forecast:
The trough axis shifted further north than what most of yesterday afternoon’s models had indicated, hence the dry slot will be punching further north into the immediate DC area.
Temperatures did not drop as much due to the lack of precipitation intensity overnight. All and all this will be a northern Maryland event with a general 3 to 5″. Some folks near the Pennsylvania border could pick up 6 to 7″.
I congratulate the European forecast model for being the closest in accuracy of keeping most of the accumulating snow (that is above 2″) north of the Potomac.
I am still watching the models for a potential snow storm around/after President’s Day.