Scattered Snow Showers Late Tonight & Update on Potential Blockbuster Early Next Week


The image above (High Resolution Rapid Refresh – HRRR, courtesy Tropicaltidbits) shows some scattered snow showers moving across parts of the DC Region tonight. Any snow shower will be capable of causing slick travel conditions for the morning rush hour.

Next up Bitter Cold: The next three images (courtesy weatherbell) show the current European forecast for:

1) Lows on Sunday (Valentine’s Day)

2) Wind Chills on Sunday morning (Dangerously Cold!!!)

3) High temperatures on Sunday (Teens for most of us)

As the arctic front passes through on Saturday I wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow showers or flurries moving across the area.

ecmwf_t2m_maryland_21 ecmwf_wchill_maryland_21 ecmwf_t2m_maryland_22

Another Blockbuster Storm Monday Night through Tuesday?

The 500mb (upper level pattern) favors another potential major east coast snow storm: Image below (Euro) shows inverted trough swinging through the Mid-Atlantic with a massive area of blocking high pressure over eastern Canada.  Whatever storm that forms may have nowhere to go any time soon… could wobble up the coast …. stay tuned!



Bust of a Forecast for Immediate Metro Area

Quick morning update to show the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model for potential snowfall through this evening:  Winter Storm Warnings were dropped with a Winter Weather Advisory posted mainly for Maryland and Loudoun county Virginia.

hrrr_snow_maryland_16 hrrr_snow_washdc_16

What went wrong with the forecast:

The trough axis shifted further north than what most of yesterday afternoon’s models had indicated, hence the dry slot will be punching further north into the immediate DC area.

Temperatures did not drop as much due to the lack of precipitation intensity overnight. All and all this will be a northern Maryland event with a general 3 to 5″. Some folks near the Pennsylvania border could pick up 6 to 7″.

I congratulate the European forecast model for being the closest in accuracy of keeping most of the accumulating snow (that is above 2″) north of the Potomac.

I am still watching the models for a potential snow storm around/after President’s Day.