Valentine’s Day Polar Vortex: Dangerously Cold Temperatures Possible this Weekend

The coldest air of the season will arrive during the upcoming weekend just in time for Valentine’s Day.  The models are not in total agreement on exactly how cold it is going to get but some of the latest operational runs are raising eyebrows.

The following image shows the progression of arctic air infiltrating the eastern United States (Global Ensemble Forecast System), image courtesy weatherbell.com

gefs_t2anom_16_east_1.png

Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday could be running some 15 to 20 degrees Celsius below average! (that would be well over 30 degrees below normal Farenheit)

So let’s look at what the current models are showing for actual air temperatures on the morning of Valentine’s Day:

ecmwf_t2m_ma_25.png

Zooming into the Washington Region: (Below Zero temperatures are possible in spots!)

ecmwf_t2m_washdc_25.png

How about the wind chills:  With a stiff north wind, our region could be under *Wind Chill Warnings* with the feel like temperature 15 to 25 below zero!

ecmwf_wchill_washdc_25.png

And how about these *Toasty* high temperatures for Valentine’s Day:  Don’t be surprised if we keep seeing the current forecast highs of “25” start dropping into the teens as we get closer to the weekend.

ecmwf_t2m_washdc_26.png

 


Monday Update on Snow Storm

I am sticking with the map I posted yesterday afternoon:

09FEB16_Snowfall_Forecast_DCstorms.com

The Models have come into agreement that the heaviest snow accumulations (those possibly going over a half of a foot) should be across northern Maryland along the interstate 70 corridor into the Baltimore Area. I still think a general 2 to 4″ of snow looks reasonable for the immediate DC Metro Area. Temperatures are trending a bit colder tonight and wet bulb temperatures are as well (dew points). Translate: The rush hour on Tuesday is looking like hell. The snow should continue to fall for much of the day on Tuesday except for areas from Fredericksburg over to southern Maryland where a dry slot will likely move in, cutting down on accumulations there.
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_11 ecmwf_tsnow_maryland_11 wpc_snow_72_75_maryland