Latest on Potential for Winter Storm Monday and Tuesday

The Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensembles (image below courtesy Weatherbell.com) are a little more bullish with snowfall tonight then they were last night, however for our area the GFS phases the storm too far to our north preventing a significant snowfall across our region.

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_24

The current European and Canadian operational models are much more bullish with a coastal storm rapidly deepening over the NC/VA border on Monday afternoon before phasing with the upper-level energy over the midwest. The result would be a medium-high impact storm for our region (6 to 12″ of snow).

Canadian:

cmc_pr6_slp_t850_ma_20

European:

ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_21

More updates this weekend as hopefully we begin to see some consensus developing between the various forecast models. By consensus, I am hoping the GFS comes into line with the European and Canadian models. The snow here in the Mid-Atlantic melts way too soon to really enjoy winter for more than a few days.

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