The Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensembles (image below courtesy Weatherbell.com) are a little more bullish with snowfall tonight then they were last night, however for our area the GFS phases the storm too far to our north preventing a significant snowfall across our region.
The current European and Canadian operational models are much more bullish with a coastal storm rapidly deepening over the NC/VA border on Monday afternoon before phasing with the upper-level energy over the midwest. The result would be a medium-high impact storm for our region (6 to 12″ of snow).
More updates this weekend as hopefully we begin to see some consensus developing between the various forecast models. By consensus, I am hoping the GFS comes into line with the European and Canadian models. The snow here in the Mid-Atlantic melts way too soon to really enjoy winter for more than a few days.