Enjoy the Short-term Thaw; Winter may Return with a Vengeance

Winter is not over by a long-shot.  We will once again need to monitor the coast as an area of low pressure may form along a stalled frontal boundary on Thursday or Friday of the upcoming week.  Most of the models currently take this system well out to sea.

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_29

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System; image above, courtesy weatherbell.com) models show one bullish run out of 20 (currently very low chance of something impacting our area) but some of the other ensemble runs have a dusting to an inch falling.  One thing is for certain, it will get much colder behind the cold front on Wednesday.

Next time frame to watch:  I am very interested in the time period between February 10th and President’s Day for our next chance of a crippling snow storm somewhere on the eastern seaboard

eps_z500a_nh_47 eps_z500a_noram_47

The two images above are showing the upper level pattern at 500 mb (jet stream level).  Red colors indicate blocking areas of high pressure and blue/purple areas represent deep troughs (dips in the jet stream).

To get a massive east coast storm you need a massive ridge near Alaska/west coast of the United States and blocking over the North Atlantic (Greenland).  A deep trough may be forming over the central/eastern United states during this time frame spawning one hell of a storm that may ride up the eastern seaboard.

Bottom Line:  February 10 through President’s Day is too far away to focus on specifics in the ensemble models but this is historically a time when the Nation’s Capital has been slammed with crippling storms (around President’s Day).

 

One Reply to “Enjoy the Short-term Thaw; Winter may Return with a Vengeance”

  1. Thanks for the excellent update, Tim! That is one heck of a trough in the Midwest with a very strong Arctic or even cross polar connection. We are not lacking for cold air, that is for sure!

    I agree that there is a very good chance for another major snowstorm during the time frame you mentioned.

    Like

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