Latest Ensembles Suggest that this Storm Could Rival the Knickerbocker Storm

6 Comments

I’m not trying to sound alarmist or hype this but looking at the latest ensembles and operational runs, this storm could rival the January 1922 “Knickerbocker Storm”, Washington’s heaviest snowfall in recorded history with 28″ in downtown!  Check out the latest GFS Ensembles:  *Notice the Bulls-eye right over the immediate Washington Area* — if this pans out — this storm may be our #1 or #2 worst Blizzard so far in recorded history. gefs_snow_ens_washdc_17

Here is the latest GFS Operational:  Those of you in southern Maryland, don’t let your guard down… if sleet doesn’t mix in for long (and it’s not forecast to do so), you could also easily see over 2 feet of snow!

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_16

If you smooth the lines in the GFS above you would get a more realistic look at how much snow could fall… generally this is looking like a widespread accumulation of 2 feet with some folks getting 3 feet. Again as I said there could be some totals (especially in the western suburbs of DC and eastern facing slopes of the blue ridge) possibly receiving over 36″!

Here’s the latest European:

ecmwf_tsnow_maryland_21

Here’s the latest Canadian:

cmc_snow_acc_washdc_21

6 thoughts on “Latest Ensembles Suggest that this Storm Could Rival the Knickerbocker Storm”

  1. Andy

    Yes, this is very exciting!

    One thing I did not like with the other forecasters this week was that many of them said it would be a “wet snow”. We have not been above 34 all week. National was 22 last night and right now is 25 with a 14 dewpoint. That means we will be well down in the 20’s when the snow begins. Unless we get a surge of warming at low levels from the east, this will not be a wet snow. Not a flake will be wasted!

    I enjoy following your blog because you have much more common sense than most of your “competitors”.

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    Reply
    • Tim

      Hi Andy,
      I agree with you that the snow will start out very dry and unless we get that surge (depending upon how close the sleet/snow line makes it westward from the Bay) the accumulations will be remarkable even in the areas (Old Town Alexandria, National Airport/Potomac shore) that typically get lesser amounts due to melting/urban heat island). I hope for everyone’s sake that this storm remains a dry snow because that would help to prevent wet snow from sticking to trees which would pose more of a danger to power lines and trees. The other thing I was thinking about today is… should we really be surprised that these events happen here in DC every so often? These storms frequently hit the northern Mid-Atlantic states (NJ/PA/MD/DC/Northern VA) … they’ve paid us a visit about every 6 years. The only thing historic about this may be if we can get over 19 inches of snow at National Airport which is looking likely. Also the blizzard aspect with the wind is pretty historic in nature.

      Like

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