High Resolution Models Performing Well this Evening

I have had several folks ask me if I am concerned about snowfall totals given the very fine, powdery snow flakes currently falling. I am not concerned as the phasing of the upper level energy (still over the mid-south) and coastal low (off of GA) hasn’t even occurred yet.  We have a long way to go with this storm system.

I pulled up the current HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model and things are tracking very accurately with 5 to 6″ of snow being reported south and west of DC (Fredericksburg & Stafford) and between 3 and 4 inches already being reported inside the Capital Beltway.  The image below is showing what should be on the ground as of 8PM tonight:  Model is performing well!hrrr_snow_maryland_3

Here is what the same model is showing for what could be on the ground Saturday morning at 9AM:

hrrr_snow_maryland_16

Snowfall rates will increase overnight to 2″ per hour as the coastal storm currently off of the GA coast rapidly deepens as it tracks northeast towards Hatteras, NC.

Convective bands will develop on the radar late tonight and Saturday morning so don’t be surprised if you hear thunder, especially in areas between interstate 95 and the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds will also increase this evening with frequent gusts between 35 and 45 mph.  White out conditions, blowing and drifting could produce drifts of 4 to 6 feet.

Finally, I just pulled WPC (Weather Prediction Center’s) Snowfall Potential Forecast for total storm accumulations for the region and the immediate metro:

wpc_snow_72_75_maryland wpc_snow_72_75_washdc

 

One Reply to “High Resolution Models Performing Well this Evening”

  1. I don’t know if you saw the new NAM hot off the press, but it is giving about a 35″ snow event for DC and vicinity! So yes, we are just getting warmed up!

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