The above image is what I think may fall across the National Capital Region by Sunday morning. My map was made using a blend of the latest Euro, GFS and Canadian models (images below courtesy Weatherbell). I’m hopeful that my snowfall accumulation map will not need to be changed based on the trends that have held steady thus far.
Here’s the latest Euro, GFS and Canadian for you to make up your own minds:
Blizzard Watches have been issued for the Metro Area because of the threat of sustained winds and gusts that may lead to white-out conditions.
Some sleet may mix in with the snow on Friday evening in locations east of interstate 95 (likely the northern neck of VA, and southern Maryland). But any mixing will change back over to snow as the Nor’easter pulls colder air into its center as it slowly wobbles to the east on Saturday morning. Locations that receive any mixing of sleet will still be receiving a crippling storm. In fact this storm should pretty much paralyze the entire region.
Some of the fun details that we could be enjoying on Friday night and Saturday is the possibility for some banding that develops. Some of the bands could put down some lightning… you can’t rule out some thunder-snow when systems deepen pretty rapidly.
The eastern slopes of the Blue ridge and foothills will have the opportunity in some of these snow bands to approach snowfall totals possibly over 36″. I would not be surprised to see some people reporting 38 to 44″ in the eastern facing higher elevations of the Blue Ridge mountains.
Very interesting analysis. Thanks for taking the time. I Use several national weather web sites from time to time. This is more regional and relevant to my location, King George, VA. I stopped using the one out of Atlanta that has it’s own cable channel, you know the one….they have cool shows but gave away hard weather years ago. Right now their web site has King George getting 1-3 (Friday) and 3-5 inches (Saturday). Point made.
I will frequent this site, looks clean, concise and just enough geek to peek the interest.
Thanks again.
Well thanks for all the hard work Tim! Been following your posts for years now and always look forward to them. I say bring the SNOW!!!!
It’s because we are under Watches. The media loves to hold out as long as possible because they are afraid of being burned. So the general public get’s the lowest probability numbers until the Warnings are issued by the National Weather Service. Weather forecasting is 100% politics. Conservative forecasting can burn you as much as it can save you. I have to say, the media has gotten a lot better this year at warning the public than in years past. But yes, I have seen all the predictions from News4 to News7, to News9, to CapitalWeatherGang etc… conservatism rules the roost and then they claim at the end of the storm that they were 100% accurate in their forecast. I have made blunders in the past and am the first to admit that nobody is perfect and the weather is very unpredictable. But I try to give folks an idea of what we are seeing on the models so that they can prepare.
It seems your totals are generally a bit higher than the news. Is that because they are being conservative in their prediction?
No arguments here! I spent a lot of time looking at the models, trying to see if there was anything I didn’t like and could not find anything. Can’t say that has happened very often in the many years I have followed these storms.
Nice!!! What do you think will get in terms of getting another big punch of snow next month. The more the better I say. It seems that President’s Day always sees snow.
If you haven’t gotten your shovel out you may want to think about it today or tomorrow! Could Leesburg be in the 3 feet range?