Tuesday Evening Update: Euro Shifts Slightly South… Will it Hold?

The European operational model shifted slightly south today as did the GFS Ensembles.  The Washington Area is still currently in the heavy snow accumulation zone and I would not be surprised to see the models creep the bulls-eye back north overnight into tomorrow.

Here was the 00z run from late last night: DC right in the middle of the Bulls-eyeecmwf_tsnow_ma_23 Here is the 12z run from late this morning: Notice the shift south from DC to Richmond.

ecmwf_tsnow_ma_19

The European Ensemble that predicts probability of snowfall agrees more with a blend of the GFS: Notice in the map below that the probability of 12 inches or more  in the DC Metro Area is currently pretty high (6o to 80%).

eps_snow_12_ma_21

Lastly lets look at the GFS Ensembles: These shifted slightly south as well, however I remember this happening to several major historic storms in the past… where the operational models shifted south and then crept back to the north.  The one thing I am not currently too worried about in this scenario is mixing issues in DC (sleet/rain).  If this trend holds… DC is in for an all-snow event.

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_24

Bottom Line: the models will update late tonight with new information. I’d like to see the next operational Euro before I buy as shift of the bulls-eye into central Virginia (Richmond Area).  After all, one operational run of a model does not typically create a trend.

3 Replies to “Tuesday Evening Update: Euro Shifts Slightly South… Will it Hold?”

  1. The 18Z GFS was rock solid with DC basically right in the bulls eye. I would think that would be run with later data than the 12Z European, with the storm in question having moved inland over Oregon. Thus I am not overly concerned about that one Euro run. Plus how many times have models bulls eyed the southern suburbs, when Damascus and Columbia end up hitting the jackpot? I am much happier now that the rain/snow line has moved south.

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    1. I agree… i have seen it happen many times over where the jackpot “goes south” only to come back north with the Dulles to Frederick/Montgomery-northern Maryland Jackpot occurring.

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