The European operational model shifted slightly south today as did the GFS Ensembles. The Washington Area is still currently in the heavy snow accumulation zone and I would not be surprised to see the models creep the bulls-eye back north overnight into tomorrow.
Here was the 00z run from late last night: DC right in the middle of the Bulls-eye
Here is the 12z run from late this morning: Notice the shift south from DC to Richmond.
The European Ensemble that predicts probability of snowfall agrees more with a blend of the GFS: Notice in the map below that the probability of 12 inches or more in the DC Metro Area is currently pretty high (6o to 80%).
Lastly lets look at the GFS Ensembles: These shifted slightly south as well, however I remember this happening to several major historic storms in the past… where the operational models shifted south and then crept back to the north. The one thing I am not currently too worried about in this scenario is mixing issues in DC (sleet/rain). If this trend holds… DC is in for an all-snow event.
Bottom Line: the models will update late tonight with new information. I’d like to see the next operational Euro before I buy as shift of the bulls-eye into central Virginia (Richmond Area). After all, one operational run of a model does not typically create a trend.
I live in laplata Maryland is it going to be still 1ft to 3ft
I agree… i have seen it happen many times over where the jackpot “goes south” only to come back north with the Dulles to Frederick/Montgomery-northern Maryland Jackpot occurring.
The 18Z GFS was rock solid with DC basically right in the bulls eye. I would think that would be run with later data than the 12Z European, with the storm in question having moved inland over Oregon. Thus I am not overly concerned about that one Euro run. Plus how many times have models bulls eyed the southern suburbs, when Damascus and Columbia end up hitting the jackpot? I am much happier now that the rain/snow line has moved south.