Latest on Late Week Storm

Just a quick update this morning:  1) Storm hasn’t disappeared from the models (ensembles or operational) and 2) There are still some differences in the ensembles regarding exact track that will hopefully be ironed out late this afternoon/evening.

Operational GFS  (image courtesy weatherbell.com)

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_20.png

Operational Euro (image courtesy weatherbell.com)

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_21.png

Operational Canadian (image courtesy weatherbell.com)

cmc_snow_acc_washdc_20.png

More Importantly the Ensembles (image courtesy weatherbell.com): gefs_snow_ens_washdc_23.png

Ensembles are basically showing the varying “opinions” based on tweaking initial conditions) – *Some of the ensembles do show some mixing issues* — while they are not the majority now… they can’t be discounted completely. In other words if the storm tracks closer to the coast, there could be some sleet or rain mixing in depending upon the exact track which would cut down on some snowfall accumulations. 

Lastly: Latest Euro Metogram for National Airport:

KDCA_2016011900_eps_snow_240.png

Notice the Ensemble Mean (average) is still currently showing the potential for 16″ of snow at National airport. Again, we will want to see this holding steady through Wednesday when Winter Storm Watches will likely be issued. More updates this evening after I see the latest model guidance.

3 Replies to “Latest on Late Week Storm”

  1. Wow this is looking fantabulous! It looks like it could deepen off our coast and heavy snowbands will move inland. I have a question how do you interpret the models? I’ve tried but I just see lines and squiggles. What do they mean? Also how far in advance do winter storm watches get issued for this particular event. Could there be a blizzard?

    Like

    1. To be a blizzard, a snow storm must have sustained winds or frequent gusts that are greater than or equal to 56 km/h (35 mph) with blowing or drifting snow which reduces visibility to 400 m or 0.25 mi or less and must last for a prolonged period of time—typically three hours or more. So Yes, we could very well see Blizzard Watches Issued, or they will Issue Winter Storm Watches and then issue “Blizzard Warnings”. Blizzards have nothing to do with snow amount… just sustained winds and poor visibility.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s