Just a quick update this morning: 1) Storm hasn’t disappeared from the models (ensembles or operational) and 2) There are still some differences in the ensembles regarding exact track that will hopefully be ironed out late this afternoon/evening.
Operational GFS (image courtesy weatherbell.com)
Operational Euro (image courtesy weatherbell.com)
Operational Canadian (image courtesy weatherbell.com)
More Importantly the Ensembles (image courtesy weatherbell.com):
Ensembles are basically showing the varying “opinions” based on tweaking initial conditions) – *Some of the ensembles do show some mixing issues* — while they are not the majority now… they can’t be discounted completely. In other words if the storm tracks closer to the coast, there could be some sleet or rain mixing in depending upon the exact track which would cut down on some snowfall accumulations.
Lastly: Latest Euro Metogram for National Airport:
Notice the Ensemble Mean (average) is still currently showing the potential for 16″ of snow at National airport. Again, we will want to see this holding steady through Wednesday when Winter Storm Watches will likely be issued. More updates this evening after I see the latest model guidance.