Operational models update every few hours and will likely change as we get closer to the upcoming storm event. Today’s operational models like yesterday continue to raise eyebrows:
OOZ GFS – (image courtesy Weatherbell) Wow!
Latest Euro (image courtesy Weatherbell) – Since when is the immediate 95 corridor in the bullseye?
Latest Canadian (image courtesy Weatherbell)-
Again *These will likely change, they are just the latest operational models* – The storm track could change so stay tuned for updates.
I’m not buying in yet. I’ve lived in NOVA a long time and I’ve seen this scenario many times. Either the low forms to far off the coast or we get invaded by warm air because the low is too far inland. It’s almost like threading a needle. I remember Doug Hill saying once there is a 100 mile window of opportunity for DC to get a big snow.
Thank you Bill. Great question. We are four days out and since the Ensembles are now converging on a mid-atlantic coastal storm, the odds are very high that someone in our region has a higher probability to get slammed. I will feel much more comfortable on Tuesday evening when the short-wave that will be responsible for generating the surface low actually hits the Pacific northwest coast. Exact track, speed and where the warm conveyor belt snows develop will be key to who gets 20″ or more of out of this storm (Pennsylvania? New Jersey? Northern Virginia/DC/Maryland etc). There are details that we won’t know until Wednesday. But We can expect Winter Storm Watches on Wednesday if the models hold steady.
Tim,
Appreciate your efforts. I routinely recommend your site due to its accuracy.
Are you concerned about trying to forecast out a week? I’ve always thought 3 days is the best a forecaster can do. Clearly the models are converging, but isn’t there still an amount of uncertainty? How far out on the time-line are you comfortable in a forecast?
Your thoughts?