Confidence Increasing as Ensembles Hold Steady

I have to admit I am surprised at how the ensembles have been holding steady during the past forty-eight hours.  If this trend holds up… Winter Storm Watches will be needed Wednesday!

Remember 2009? … I took the picture below from beautiful, Arlington Virginia in December of 2009 just after our first major snowstorm since 2003!

IMG_1007

Euro “Bomb”/”Bombogenesis” – rapidly deepening coastal cyclone (image below courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) — Doesn’t get any more exciting in the world of weather than this!  A “Category 2 Hurricane” parked off the Mid-Atlantic coastline…  oh the thought of blowing/drifting snow…

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_eus_6

Global Ensemble Forecast System – in good agreement with Euro

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_21

Canadian Model – Also in decent agreement with Euro and GFS

gem-ememb_lowlocs_eus_20

So what can change? The exact track will be key.  We will know a lot more tomorrow evening as the shortwave reaches the Pacific Northwest coast. Stay Tuned!

 

One Reply to “Confidence Increasing as Ensembles Hold Steady”

  1. New to the area–thanks for doing this, very helpful. Sounds like a big one could be coming!

    Like

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