I have to admit I am surprised at how the ensembles have been holding steady during the past forty-eight hours.  If this trend holds up… Winter Storm Watches will be needed Wednesday!

Remember 2009? … I took the picture below from beautiful, Arlington Virginia in December of 2009 just after our first major snowstorm since 2003!

Euro “Bomb”/”Bombogenesis” – rapidly deepening coastal cyclone (image below courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) — Doesn’t get any more exciting in the world of weather than this!  A “Category 2 Hurricane” parked off the Mid-Atlantic coastline…  oh the thought of blowing/drifting snow…

Global Ensemble Forecast System – in good agreement with Euro

Canadian Model – Also in decent agreement with Euro and GFS

So what can change? The exact track will be key.  We will know a lot more tomorrow evening as the shortwave reaches the Pacific Northwest coast. Stay Tuned!