Unseasonably cold temperatures are coming… What about Snow?

The coldest air of the season will be pouring into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday with the heart of the coldest air passing overhead Monday night through Tuesday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will likely hold in the 30s across the northern and western suburbs with most locations holding near freezing for a high on Tuesday (DC and the southern and eastern suburbs may make it into the middle to upper 30s)

Latest GFS - Highs on Monday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com
Latest GFS – Highs on Monday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com
Latest GFS - Lows on Tuesday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com
Latest GFS – Lows on Tuesday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com
Latest GFS - Highs on Tuesday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com
Latest GFS – Highs on Tuesday, image courtesy Weatherbell.com

Everyone wants to know when are we going to receive our first snowfall of the season? As I had said during my winter forecast, December was expected to be mild with the snow coming during the second half of winter. The good news is that the teleconnection indices are all trending in the right direction with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) both going negative.  A negative NAO index favors big east coast snowstorms and a negative AO favors very cold air pouring into the United States.  There are other indices that are favoring a patten including the MJO, but for the sake of keeping things brief, let’s take a look at the CFS (Climate Forecast System) Ensembles for snowfall between now and January 15th and now and February 15th.  As you can see, the models are suggesting that some hefty snow pack will be on the ground as we head into the latter half of Winter!

Climate Forecast System - Potential Snowfall through January 20th; image courtesy, Weatherbell.com
Climate Forecast System – Potential Snowfall through January 20th; image courtesy, Weatherbell.com
Climate Forecast System - Potential Snowfall through February 20th; image courtesy, Weatherbell.com
Climate Forecast System – Potential Snowfall through February 20th; image courtesy, Weatherbell.com

3 Replies to “Unseasonably cold temperatures are coming… What about Snow?”

  1. Some areas could be getting oiasional flurries today, that’s a welcome sight. I like the models trending inthe right direction. I do not think we’ll be shut out this year with no snow. I think we will have our first snow before january 31. Is that possible based on the forecasts?

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  2. I saw some of the medels showing snow next week for the mid-Atlantic, what do you see? Are our chances good? I would love it if the models got it right this far out and it actually happened next week. Let me know what you think.

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