Enjoy the Short-term Thaw; Winter may Return with a Vengeance

Winter is not over by a long-shot.  We will once again need to monitor the coast as an area of low pressure may form along a stalled frontal boundary on Thursday or Friday of the upcoming week.  Most of the models currently take this system well out to sea.

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_29

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System; image above, courtesy weatherbell.com) models show one bullish run out of 20 (currently very low chance of something impacting our area) but some of the other ensemble runs have a dusting to an inch falling.  One thing is for certain, it will get much colder behind the cold front on Wednesday.

Next time frame to watch:  I am very interested in the time period between February 10th and President’s Day for our next chance of a crippling snow storm somewhere on the eastern seaboard

eps_z500a_nh_47 eps_z500a_noram_47

The two images above are showing the upper level pattern at 500 mb (jet stream level).  Red colors indicate blocking areas of high pressure and blue/purple areas represent deep troughs (dips in the jet stream).

To get a massive east coast storm you need a massive ridge near Alaska/west coast of the United States and blocking over the North Atlantic (Greenland).  A deep trough may be forming over the central/eastern United states during this time frame spawning one hell of a storm that may ride up the eastern seaboard.

Bottom Line:  February 10 through President’s Day is too far away to focus on specifics in the ensemble models but this is historically a time when the Nation’s Capital has been slammed with crippling storms (around President’s Day).

 


More Snow Later this Week?

A cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon and evening possibly kicking off some light rain and or light freezing rain during the overnight hours. Then all eyes will turn to the Gulf coast as an area of low pressure will begin sliding northeast. But where will it track?

The ensemble models are not in agreement at this time.  The European ensembles track this storm closer to the coast (2nd snow event?) while the GFS ensembles track it far enough out to sea for a no-snow event.

eps_slp_lows_ma_17 eps_slp_lows_ma_18 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_16

Hopefully the system will stay far enough away so that we can continue to clean up from our back-breaking snowfall. I will keep you posted as more information becomes available.


Additional Snowfall Potential from now through Midnight

Here is the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model showing how much more additional snow you may potentially receive before the snow ends late this evening:

hrrr_snow_maryland_16

For those of you in the northwestern suburbs that have already picked up 18 to 20″, you may easily pick up an additional foot of snow before it ends this evening.

National Airport may receive an additional 6 to 10″ which would push totals very close to that 20 – 24″ mark at the airport.  That would possibly make this our 2nd biggest snowfall at National Airport (#1 being the Knickerbocker Storm of January 1922).

The latest HRRR says the snowfall should taper off between 9PM and 1AM:

hrrr_ref_maryland_16