After Record Warmth on Christmas; Major Pattern Change Coming!

Merry Christmas! Just a quick update for my fellow Winter Weather fans on this balmy Christmas Eve … a major pattern change is on the way! Winter is coming back as colder air will start to infiltrate the eastern United States. Add a “juicy” El Nino storm track… and things may get interesting as we head into the New Year.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18

According to the latest Global Forecast System model a storm system may interact with some cold air sliding down the eastern slopes of the mountains early next week.  The European forecast model is not in agreement yet.  Regardless of what happens, it appears that the cooler temperatures will stick around as we head into January (a necessary ingredient for snow).  I hope everyone has a safe and happy Holiday Season.


Current Mild Pattern is not Surprising based upon Analogs for this Winter

It’s the most wonderful time of the year… Happy December! The holidays are here and Christmas is now only 22 days away! Who wants a white Christmas? Could the Mid-Atlantic receive a snow storm before Christmas, absolutely.  Could it be mild with no snow during the remainder of December… absolutely.  When I issue a winter forecast, I am speaking in general terms based on historical years with similar ocean temperatures and patterns.  So let’s break down December through February based upon the analog years for temperatures and precipitation:

December temperature anomalies (departure from average).

December temperature anomalies (departure from average).

December precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

December precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

January temperature anomalies (departure from average).

January temperature anomalies (departure from average).

January precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

January precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

February temperature anomalies (departure from average).

February temperature anomalies (departure from average).

February precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

February precipitation anomalies (departure from average).

So as you can see, according to the analogs, the winter is expected to start out mild (December) and then progressively get colder as we head into January and February.