The European and GFS (American – Global Forecast System) models are in basic agreement that a storm system will track through the Mid South on Thursday as an area of low pressure develops off of the North Carolina Outer Banks before tracking northeast. This system has the potential to deliver some accumulating snow from Northern Virginia to New England.

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: 1 AM Friday; Image courtesy TropicalTidbits

How much snow could fall? Let’s look at the latest forecast models…

The exact track (how close to the coast) and how quickly this coastal system strengthens will dictate how much snow (if any) falls. If the system strengthens rapidly, colder air will win out raising the potential for several inches of heavy, wet, snow Thursday during the overnight hours into the day on Friday.

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: 7 AM Friday; Image courtesy TropicalTidbits

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: Friday 1 PM; Image courtesy TropicalTidbits

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model:  7 PM Friday; Image courtesy TropicalTidbits

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: 1 AM Saturday; Image courtesy TropicalTidbits

Latest Snowfall Accumulation Forecast from GFS and European models:

Latest GFS Snowfall Forecast (Thursday night through Friday Evening); Image courtesy Weatherbell

Latest European Snowfall Forecast (Thursday night through Friday Evening)

Several of the European ensemble members continue to show substantially more snowfall accumulation with this system with the potential for five to ten inches.   Typically in March, these amounts would fall across the higher elevations and outer northern & western suburbs of Washington.

If you live in Shenandoah Valley, northern Maryland, Potomac Highlands of Virginia & Maryland… monitor the forecast as this storm has the potential to drop substantial snowfall accumulations for March standards.  I will have updates throughout the week.

View from the top of Bull Run Mountain overlooking the spectacular rolling hills and famous wine country of Northern Virginia (Fauquier & Loudoun counties) after a March Snowfall (Image courtesy Jason S.)