Accumulations Late Week Likely Dependent Upon Elevation

Unless the coastal storm rapidly deepens overnight on Thursday, the likelihood of accumulations is fairly low this time of year outside of higher elevations in the Potomac Highlands and grassy surfaces in the northern and western suburbs of Washington.

Latest GFS, 7 AM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest GFS, 7 AM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell

Let’s take a look at the latest GFS and Snowfall Accumulation forecasts… 

Latest GFS, 7 AM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest GFS, 1 PM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest GFS, 7 AM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest GFS, 7 PM Friday; Image courtesy Weatherbell

Several factors that limit snowfall accumulations in mid to late March:

1.  Higher March sun angle

2. Marginal temperatures (lack of an arctic high sitting over New England)

 Of course, to get several inches of snow to stick to the grass and untreated secondary roads all you need is several hours of moderate to heavy snow and temperatures that hold near 32 degrees.  This time of year that can still occur across the Potomac Highlands as well as the northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore.   

Latest GFS Snowfall Forecast, Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest GFS Snowfall Forecast, Image courtesy Weatherbell
Latest European Model Snowfall Forecast
Latest European Model Snowfall Forecast

A second shot of cold air will be moving into the Mid-Atlantic states late next weekend and the pattern looks to remain fairly active through the end of March.

One Reply to “Accumulations Late Week Likely Dependent Upon Elevation”

  1. Anyone care to guess as to why WeatherBug is saying this mess hits Thursday and Accuweather is saying Friday?

    Like

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