Potential for an East Coast Winter Storm Increasing

The pattern appears to be shaping up for one final gasp of Winter as we head through the last two full weeks of March.  The time frame that I will be watching closely is next weekend through the 25th of March.  Many of the various model runs within the European ensembles (there are 51 in total) are showing an accumulating snowfall event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic.  While there are no guarantees of a snowstorm occurring, the probability of an event has been steadily increasing.

Latest European

Latest European Ensembles (1 through 26 out of 51) continue to show the potential for an accumulating snow event in the DC Region.

 

This *potential* event is still 7 to 15 days out… the NAO continues to trend negative. The PNA (Pacific North American) index continues to trend positive (indicative of the record heat in the west). The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) index continues to trend back to its negative phase and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rend negative as we head through the aforementioned time frame.

Latest

Latest European Ensembles (27 through 51 out of 51) continue to show the potential for an accumulating snow event in the DC Region.

Temperatures will likely begin to cool off as we head towards next weekend. Colder air should begin building into the Midwest, New England and the Mid-Atlantic states as the ridge of high pressure continues to build along the west coast and a trough begins deepening in the east.  This amplified pattern will create an interesting set up for some more winter weather before spring is here for good.

3 thoughts on “Potential for an East Coast Winter Storm Increasing

    • Tim

      The ENSEMBLES contain 51 different “results/outcomes” based upon tweaking the initial input values. So yes, if you look at the various frames 1 through 26 and 27 through 51, you are correct that the results vary from 0 to 18″. The point I was making with this post is that I do not believe we are done with colder than average temperatures or snow. Whether we get a 3″ storm or a big storm, the probability is increasing that A) it will snow one more time and B) it will get much colder again before spring is here for good.

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