50/50 Weekend, Medium Range Still Looks Interesting

The first half of the upcoming weekend is looking wet as opposed to icy across the DC Area.   Temperatuers will be warm enough and precipitation will start late enough for a rain event. Thankfully the rain will continue to chip away at the dirty piles of snow in the parking lots across our region. 

Latest GFS (Saturday); Image courtesy Weatherbell.

Latest GFS (Saturday); Image courtesy Weatherbell.

Latest GFS (Sunday); Image courtesy Weatherbell.

Latest GFS (Sunday); Image courtesy Weatherbell.

According to the latest GFS and European forecast models, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index will head to its negative phase as we head into the middle part of March.  When the NAO is negative, blocking high pressure is situated over the North Atlantic and this tends to favor the development of east coast storms.   There are no guarantees, but it is certainly something to watch. Bottom line is that we may have one more storm before spring is officially here for good.  Based upon the timing of the charts below, March 17th through 25th would be the period to watch.  Of course this is just a forecast and if the NAO remains positive then we might be out of the woods.

NAO Index (GFS model) continues to trend negative mid to late March.

NAO Index (GFS model) continues to trend negative mid March.

NAO Index (European model) continues to trend negative mid to late March.

NAO Index (European model) continues to trend negative mid March.

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