I took a blend of the models using a 20:1 ratio. Snowfall ratios could end up being 25:1 with this system but the biggest question in my mind is how far north and west do the heaviest bands of snow make it across northwestern Virginia and the Potomac Highlands of Maryland?
I think 6 to 10″ is reasonable for the immediate Metro Area, including everyone inside the urban heat island of DC, Arlington and Alexandria. So who has the best chance of getting the jackpot?
The latest guidance continues to keep the heaviest precipitation amounts literally just south of the District. Fredericksburg, Stafford, Quantico, Woodbridge, Ft. Belvoir, La Plata, White Plaines, Waldorf, Lexington Park, Chesapeake Beach, Prince Frederick… you are in the bulls-eye zone where 10″ or better (locally a foot of snow or dare I say 14″) is possible.
There are always surprises with these storms. If the heavier bands can fight off the dry air in place sooner and move further north and west into the northern Shenandoah Valley, etc… then accumulation totals may be higher. Of course with the way this winter has gone…the surprises could always go to the bust side as well, but the models seem to have a decent handle on this system. This will certainly be our biggest snow storm of the season and a plowable snow for many.