DC Snow Curse?

Yesterday's GFS had a solid accumulating snow event across the DC Region.
Yesterday’s GFS had a solid accumulating snow event across the DC Region.
Today's model runs shifted north in track, increasing our chances of snow quickly changing over to rain or a mix.
Today’s model runs shifted north in track, increasing our chances of snow quickly changing over to rain or a mix.

I’m pretty speechless… with the bitter cold air forecasted to follow another potential worthless storm (of yet another mixed event) I am ready for spring.

6 Replies to “DC Snow Curse?”

  1. Tim,

    I share your frustration but models will change a couple more times – for the better or not. Check out weathercentre blogspot, he’s pretty good. Read his most recent post about this storm and the “Typhoon Rule,” it’s an interesting analysis.

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  2. If you look at the model solutions over the past 3 days, they have shown virtually every conceivable solution, ranging from a storm going up into the Great Lakes to a southern storm where we are not that far from the northern edge of the precip. Who knows if this is the “final solution”?

    It used to be that you would first get excited when you saw heavy snow breaking out at Roanoke and Richmond. I think we are almost back to that “nowcasting” due to total lack of faith with respect to the model solutions. This getting up for storms several days ahead of time is a waste of time. I am sick of telling my friends about upcoming snow and then looking like a complete idiot.

    One straw to grasp at, we have a very nice Greenland block at 500 mb. My past experience is that things often go better than expected when that feature is present and worse than expected when 500 mb heights in that region are low. Whether that is relevant to this storm, who knows?

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    1. Try not to get too discouraged. Us mere mortals rely on you & Tim to read the “tea leaves” for us without the PC BS. Keep up the good work whilst I continue to pray to the Snow gods to lift the DC Curse.

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  3. I just found your site a few weeks ago and enjoy your approach to forecasting. I now use only your site for weather updates that might impact my work operation. Thank you and keep up the great information, it about time that someone spoke with data!

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  4. It seems like the year of near misses! I keep hoping for at least a 5 or 6 inch snow this winter.

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