Winter Storm Watches Likely Needed for Parts of the DC Region

A strong clipper will track out of the Midwest and across the Carolinas before emerging off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline where all indications are that it will bomb out into a Nor’easter likely slamming New England with Blizzard Conditions.

Winter Storm Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service for parts of our area as the potential exists for 4 or more inches of snow overnight Sunday into Monday.

Let’s take a look at the latest GFS (12z) showing how this clipper may track:

Latest GFS Model (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7 AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (1 PM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7 PM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (1 AM Tuesday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model (7 AM Tuesday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Temperatures: Starting out in the middle 30s and then rapidly dropping into the middle 20s. Highs on Monday probably won’t make it above freezing for most of the region.

Latest GFS Model - Temperatures (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Model – Temperatures (1 PM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest Euro Model - Temperatures (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest Euro Model – Temperatures (1 PM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest NAM Model - Temperatures (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest NAM Model – Temperatures (1 PM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

The latest SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast Models) for the three main airports (National, Dulles & BWI) currently forecast anywhere between a coating and 7″! 

SREF - Short Range Ensemble Forecast (National Airport)

SREF – Short Range Ensemble Forecast (National Airport): Current snowfall range – 0 to 7″

SREF - Short Range Ensemble Forecast (Dulles Airport)

SREF – Short Range Ensemble Forecast (Dulles Airport):  Current Snowfall Range – 5 to 6″

SREF - Short Range Ensemble Forecast (BWI Airport)

SREF – Short Range Ensemble Forecast (BWI Airport): Current Snowfall Range – 0.7 to 7″

The latest GFS shows a band of heavy snow developing across northern Maryland just after midnight on Sunday and then sinking south into the Washington Area through the morning rush hour.

Latest GFS Liquid Accumulation - (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Liquid Accumulation – (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Liquid Accumulation -  (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

Latest GFS Liquid Accumulation – (7AM Monday), image courtesy weatherbell.com

The latest guidance suggests that periods of snow showers may continue through Monday night as an upper level disturbance passes over the Region.

My biggest concern at the moment is whether or not the clipper loses most of its moisture as it crosses the mountains.  Also, I have seen scenarios where the coastal storm develops and robs energy from the weakening clipper which can drastically reduce snowfall amounts.  Stay tuned for updates.

One thought on “Winter Storm Watches Likely Needed for Parts of the DC Region

  1. Andy

    I believe that if we get into all of that easterly or even east southeasterly flow that the models are depicting, the danger of the mountains screening out the moisture is very small.

    I think 3-6″ is a pretty safe bet (unless models are making a big error), but with the potential of quite a bit more if the storm stalls off Norfolk and keeps throwing back moisture as models are suggesting. They kind of mess up the 500 mb trough in some model depictions which causes some hesitation about forecasting large amounts at this time.

    Like

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