Probability Increasing of El Nino Developing & It’s Possible Impact on Your Summer Weather

The probability continues to increase of El Nino conditions developing across the Equatorial Pacific this Summer or early Fall. Let’s take a look at the latest forecast models and what this may mean from a historical perspective for your summer forecast here in the National Capital Region.

Current Model Forecast Plume:  Majority Predict that El Nino will develop thi Summer or Fall
Current Forecast Model Plumes: Majority Predict that El Nino will develop this Summer or Fall
Probability (%) of El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral Conditions
Probability (%) of El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral Conditions – Good news for the ongoing drought in the Southwest (California) as an El Nino Winter would bring rain and heavy mountain snow.

Given the increasing probability of El Nino (warmer than average water temperatures developing across the equatorial Pacific) developing, I pulled previous years where the D.C. Area went from back to back La Nina winters (or neutral) and into El Nino conditions the following Fall/Winter.

This is by no means an authoritative forecast (low to medium confidence), but I was curious about temperature and precipitation anomalies and wanted to share them with you:

Possible Temperature Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low-Medium)
Possible Temperature Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low-Medium)
Possible Precipitation Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low)
Possible Precipitation Anomalies April through September (Confidence: Low)

Could the Mid-Atlantic states (NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA) be in for a hot, wet summer? We will soon find out.

One Reply to “Probability Increasing of El Nino Developing & It’s Possible Impact on Your Summer Weather”

  1. Hot, humid weather is not what we want!

    The good news (for snow lovers) is that nearly all our big snowfalls going back to 1958 came during El Nino conditions. The once exception was 1996. Even then we had just come out of a significant El Nino event.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s