After a winter of records, why not threaten some of March’s all time snowfall records here in the Washington Area? After all who wouldn’t want a Snow Day and a three-day weekend while doing just that?
- Downtown Washington and its southern suburbs have the greatest potential for breaking some records tomorrow.
- Those of you that live from the central Shenandoah Valley to Stafford and Fredericksburg… you are sitting pretty in the jack pot with totals likely nearing one Foot!
Lets look at the latest forecast models in order (from most reliable to least reliable in my opinion):
The ECMWF (European Forecast Model): If this model is correct, storm spotters just south of Washington (Lake Ridge, Woodbridge, Stafford, Fredericksburg, etc…) are going to have their jaws drop tomorrow evening as they are out measuring… just incredible! Go ahead, click on the image and look at your neighborhood… if this verifies… WOW.
The Global Forecast Model (GFS): This model today has caused some panic in the weather community earlier today as it *had* backed off on precipitation totals a bit, the good news for you snow lovers is the latest 18z GFS is back in the game with 8 to 12″ falling especially from Washington DC… points south.
The North American Model (NAM): This model can be manic depressive and last year its cold bias really ticked me off when we had a lack of arctic air anywhere in sight (certainly not a problem this year).
I have had several friends texting me & calling me in a panic:
“The Weather Channel backed off on their previous amounts”… what’s going on?
” Are you sure this isn’t going to turn into a Nemo?” (When warm air won out and it rained in DC while snowing a foot just 30 miles west of the urban heat island)
“How can it snow when it has been so warm… these temperatures are really marginal?”
“What if the trends in the forecast models continue to take all the snow well south of DC”?
Let’s address these questions Now.
I pulled the latest SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) Models:
*Temperatures in DC are forecast by the SREF models to drop to Freezing by Midnight or shortly thereafter. Sleet and Freezing Rain will be causing havoc on roadways prior to the heavy snow that will get going pre-dawn*.
*Yes the models had originally had a foot of snow falling across central Pennsylvania and in time the models began to latch onto the strength of the arctic air mass moving south out of New England, making this a bust for Pennsylvania and what is looking like a BOOM for D.C. and its southern suburbs*
** This storm means business for the immediate Washington Area & quite frankly, it’s DC and the southern suburbs turn to get hammered with the highest amounts (northern Maryland doesn’t need a foot of snow — they’ve won out all winter).
*Temperatures are the reason why this storm is going to cause extremely dangerous or impossible travel*
- Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are likely on Monday with even some thunder snow possible south of town.
- As the snow becomes fluffy during the afternoon and the winds pick up… there will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow during the late afternoon and evening.
- Temperatures will plummet into the low single digits on Tuesday morning with wind chills below zero.
Enjoy tomorrow — the Cherry Blossoms will be blooming before you know it.